Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 17 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 17: stand against 2–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 17 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 17 plays this way
Hard 17 stands against every dealer card. A hit busts on any 5 or higher — about 69% of single draws — and the cards that do not bust leave you with 18–21 at best. Even against a 10 or an ace, where a standing 17 loses more often than it wins, every alternative loses more.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −0.536 | −0.153 | −1.072 | 35.4% / 14.0% / 50.7% |
| 3 | Stand | −0.532 | −0.117 | −1.063 | 37.4% / 13.5% / 49.1% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.527 | −0.081 | −1.054 | 39.4% / 13.0% / 47.5% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.523 | −0.045 | −1.046 | 41.6% / 12.2% / 46.1% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.509 | +0.012 | −1.018 | 42.3% / 16.5% / 41.1% |
| 7 | Stand | −0.483 | −0.107 | −0.967 | 26.2% / 36.9% / 36.9% |
| 8 | Stand | −0.506 | −0.382 | −1.012 | 24.5% / 12.9% / 62.7% |
| 9 | Stand | −0.554 | −0.423 | −1.107 | 22.8% / 12.0% / 65.2% |
| 10 | Stand | −0.584 | −0.420 | −1.169 | 23.0% / 12.1% / 65.0% |
| A | Stand | −0.557 | −0.478 | −1.115 | 16.7% / 18.9% / 64.5% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
17 vs 2: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 35.4%, push 14.0% and lose 50.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 38¢ per $1 — about $958 over 100 hands at $25. With a 2 up, the dealer busts 35.4% of the time.
17 vs 3: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 37.4%, push 13.5% and lose 49.1% of these hands — an expected loss of 12¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 42¢ per $1 — about $1,038 over 100 hands at $25. With a 3 up, the dealer busts 37.4% of the time.
17 vs 4: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 39.4%, push 13.0% and lose 47.5% of these hands — an expected loss of 8.1¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 45¢ per $1 — about $1,115 over 100 hands at $25. With a 4 up, the dealer busts 39.4% of the time.
17 vs 5: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 41.6%, push 12.2% and lose 46.1% of these hands — an expected loss of 4.5¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 48¢ per $1 — about $1,195 over 100 hands at $25. With a 5 up, the dealer busts 41.6% of the time.
17 vs 6: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 42.3%, push 16.5% and lose 41.1% of these hands — an expected profit of 1.2¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 52¢ per $1 — about $1,302 over 100 hands at $25. With a 6 up, the dealer busts 42.3% of the time.
17 vs 7: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 26.2%, push 36.9% and lose 36.9% of these hands — an expected loss of 11¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 38¢ per $1 — about $940 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
17 vs 8: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 24.5%, push 12.9% and lose 62.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 38¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 12¢ per $1 — about $310 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
17 vs 9: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 22.8%, push 12.0% and lose 65.2% of these hands — an expected loss of 42¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 13¢ per $1 — about $328 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time.
17 vs 10: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 23.0%, push 12.1% and lose 65.0% of these hands — an expected loss of 42¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 16¢ per $1 — about $410 over 100 hands at $25. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time.
17 vs A: Stand
Stand. Played this way you win 16.7%, push 18.9% and lose 64.5% of these hands — an expected loss of 48¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 7.9¢ per $1 — about $198 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time.