Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 15 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 15: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 15 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 15 plays this way
Fifteen busts on any 7 or higher, about 54% of single draws. The row is the familiar stiff pattern — stand against 2–6, hit against 7–ace — but 15 against a 10 is where table rules start to matter: under Atlantic City rules the play becomes surrender against 10.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −0.417 | −0.293 | −0.833 | 35.4% / 0.0% / 64.6% |
| 3 | Stand | −0.406 | −0.252 | −0.812 | 37.4% / 0.0% / 62.6% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.396 | −0.211 | −0.791 | 39.4% / 0.0% / 60.6% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.385 | −0.167 | −0.771 | 41.6% / 0.0% / 58.4% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.366 | −0.154 | −0.732 | 42.3% / 0.0% / 57.7% |
| 7 | Hit | −0.370 | −0.475 | −0.749 | 28.5% / 6.1% / 65.4% |
| 8 | Hit | −0.417 | −0.511 | −0.842 | 26.0% / 6.3% / 67.7% |
| 9 | Hit | −0.472 | −0.543 | −0.948 | 23.2% / 6.4% / 70.4% |
| 10 | Hit | −0.504 | −0.540 | −1.009 | 21.6% / 6.4% / 72.0% |
| A | Hit | −0.480 | −0.667 | −0.983 | 22.5% / 6.9% / 70.5% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
15 vs 2: Stand
Stand. A standing 15 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 2 does 35.4% of the time — an expected loss of 29¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 12¢ per $1 — about $310 over 100 hands at $25.
15 vs 3: Stand
Stand. A standing 15 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 3 does 37.4% of the time — an expected loss of 25¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 15¢ per $1 — about $385 over 100 hands at $25.
15 vs 4: Stand
Stand. A standing 15 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 4 does 39.4% of the time — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 19¢ per $1 — about $463 over 100 hands at $25.
15 vs 5: Stand
Stand. A standing 15 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 5 does 41.6% of the time — an expected loss of 17¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 22¢ per $1 — about $545 over 100 hands at $25.
15 vs 6: Stand
Stand. A standing 15 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 6 does 42.3% of the time — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 21¢ per $1 — about $530 over 100 hands at $25.
15 vs 7: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 28.5%, push 6.1% and lose 65.4% of these hands — an expected loss of 37¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 10¢ per $1 — about $262 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
15 vs 8: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 26.0%, push 6.3% and lose 67.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 42¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 9.4¢ per $1 — about $235 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
15 vs 9: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 23.2%, push 6.4% and lose 70.4% of these hands — an expected loss of 47¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 7.1¢ per $1 — about $178 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time.
15 vs 10: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 21.6%, push 6.4% and lose 72.0% of these hands — an expected loss of 50¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 3.6¢ per $1 — about $90 over 100 hands at $25. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time. Rules change it: Atlantic City → surrender. Card counters stand at true count +4 or higher.
15 vs A: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 22.5%, push 6.9% and lose 70.5% of these hands — an expected loss of 48¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 19¢ per $1 — about $468 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time.
When the table rules change the play
Every other dealer card plays the same under all five rule sets we model. These are the exceptions (changes in bold):
| Evolution Live | Vegas Strip | Atlantic City | Vegas H17 | European (ENHC) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs 10 | Hit | Hit | Surrender | Hit | Hit |
Evolution Live: 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · Vegas Strip: 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · Atlantic City: 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender · Vegas H17: 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · European (ENHC): 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split
Card-counting deviations
Basic strategy assumes a neutral shoe. With a running count, these hard 15 plays change:
- 15 vs 10 — Counters stand at true count +4 or higher.
New to the true count? See how counting works.
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