Hard 15 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 15 is a stiff — one card can bust you, the dealer’s can’t. The row splits cleanly: stand against 2–6 and hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 15 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Every cell links to the full page: exact EV of each action, win/push/lose odds, and the math behind the call.
Character of the hand
Best-play win chance runs from 21.6% against a 10 to 42.3% against a 6. The clearest call is Hard 15 vs 5 — the wrong pick costs about 21.8¢ per $1. Even the tightest call — vs 10 — still carries a 3.6¢ gap: no coin-flips in this row, the book holds everywhere.
All ten matchups
Hard 15 vs 2Standwin 35.4%Hard 15 vs 3Standwin 37.4%Hard 15 vs 4Standwin 39.4%Hard 15 vs 5Standwin 41.6%Hard 15 vs 6Standwin 42.3%Hard 15 vs 7Hitwin 28.5%Hard 15 vs 8Hitwin 26.0%Hard 15 vs 9Hitwin 23.2%Hard 15 vs 10Hitwin 21.6%Hard 15 vs AHitwin 22.5%
Quick answers
Do you ever double hard 15?
No. Its EV trails the best simple action against every upcard — this total is strictly stand-or-hit. Full breakdown: Hard 15 vs 2.
Hit or stand on hard 15 against a dealer 2?
Basic strategy says Stand. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 35.4% (push 0.0%). Full breakdown: Hard 15 vs 2.