Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 16 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 16: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 16 plays this way
Sixteen is the worst total in the game: hitting busts on any 6 or higher, about 62% of single draws, yet standing wins only when the dealer breaks. Stand against 2–6, hit against 7–ace. Against a 10 the two choices are almost perfectly tied, which is why charts, counters and dealers argue about it. Under Atlantic City rules the play becomes surrender against 9, 10 and A.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −0.471 | −0.293 | −0.942 | 35.4% / 0.0% / 64.6% |
| 3 | Stand | −0.464 | −0.252 | −0.928 | 37.4% / 0.0% / 62.6% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.456 | −0.211 | −0.913 | 39.4% / 0.0% / 60.6% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.450 | −0.167 | −0.899 | 41.6% / 0.0% / 58.4% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.431 | −0.154 | −0.862 | 42.3% / 0.0% / 57.7% |
| 7 | Hit | −0.415 | −0.475 | −0.830 | 26.4% / 5.7% / 67.9% |
| 8 | Hit | −0.458 | −0.511 | −0.917 | 24.2% / 5.8% / 70.0% |
| 9 | Hit | −0.509 | −0.543 | −1.019 | 21.6% / 5.9% / 72.5% |
| 10 | Hit | −0.540 | −0.540 | −1.080 | 20.0% / 5.9% / 74.0% |
| A | Hit | −0.517 | −0.667 | −1.034 | 20.9% / 6.4% / 72.7% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
16 vs 2: Stand
Stand. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 2 does 35.4% of the time — an expected loss of 29¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 18¢ per $1 — about $445 over 100 hands at $25.
16 vs 3: Stand
Stand. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 3 does 37.4% of the time — an expected loss of 25¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 21¢ per $1 — about $530 over 100 hands at $25.
16 vs 4: Stand
Stand. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 4 does 39.4% of the time — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 25¢ per $1 — about $613 over 100 hands at $25.
16 vs 5: Stand
Stand. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 5 does 41.6% of the time — an expected loss of 17¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 28¢ per $1 — about $708 over 100 hands at $25.
16 vs 6: Stand
Stand. A standing 16 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 6 does 42.3% of the time — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 28¢ per $1 — about $693 over 100 hands at $25.
16 vs 7: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 26.4%, push 5.7% and lose 67.9% of these hands — an expected loss of 42¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 6.0¢ per $1 — about $150 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
16 vs 8: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 24.2%, push 5.8% and lose 70.0% of these hands — an expected loss of 46¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 5.3¢ per $1 — about $132 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
16 vs 9: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 21.6%, push 5.9% and lose 72.5% of these hands — an expected loss of 51¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 3.4¢ per $1 — about $85 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time. Rules change it: Atlantic City → surrender. Card counters stand at true count +4 or higher.
16 vs 10: Hit (borderline)
Hit. Played this way you win 20.0%, push 5.9% and lose 74.0% of these hands — an expected loss of 54¢ per $1. Stand is tied with it to three decimal places (−0.540 per $1), so neither choice is a real mistake. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time. Rules change it: Atlantic City → surrender. Card counters stand here at true count 0 or higher — the single most valuable deviation after insurance.
16 vs A: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 20.9%, push 6.4% and lose 72.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 52¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 15¢ per $1 — about $375 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time. Rules change it: Atlantic City → surrender.
When the table rules change the play
Every other dealer card plays the same under all five rule sets we model. These are the exceptions (changes in bold):
| Evolution Live | Vegas Strip | Atlantic City | Vegas H17 | European (ENHC) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs 9 | Hit | Hit | Surrender | Hit | Hit |
| vs 10 | Hit | Hit | Surrender | Hit | Hit |
| vs A | Hit | Hit | Surrender | Hit | Hit |
Evolution Live: 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · Vegas Strip: 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · Atlantic City: 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender · Vegas H17: 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · European (ENHC): 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split
Card-counting deviations
Basic strategy assumes a neutral shoe. With a running count, these hard 16 plays change:
- 16 vs 9 — Counters stand at true count +4 or higher.
- 16 vs 10 — Counters stand here at true count 0 or higher — the single most valuable deviation after insurance.
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