Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 12 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 12: hit against 2–3, stand against 4–6, hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 12 | H | H | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 12 plays this way
Twelve is the mildest stiff: only a ten-value card busts it, about 31% of single draws, so hitting is cheaper here than with any other stiff total. That is why 12 is the one stiff that hits against a dealer 2 and 3 — those upcards bust only 35% and 37% of the time, not often enough to make standing pay. From 4 to 6 the dealer breaks 39–42% of the time and standing takes over. Against 7 through ace the dealer usually finishes on 17 or better, and 12 has to try to improve.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hit | −0.253 | −0.293 | −0.507 | 34.8% / 5.0% / 60.2% |
| 3 | Hit | −0.234 | −0.252 | −0.467 | 35.9% / 4.8% / 59.3% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.214 | −0.211 | −0.427 | 39.4% / 0.0% / 60.6% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.193 | −0.167 | −0.387 | 41.6% / 0.0% / 58.4% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.171 | −0.154 | −0.341 | 42.3% / 0.0% / 57.7% |
| 7 | Hit | −0.213 | −0.475 | −0.507 | 35.5% / 7.6% / 56.8% |
| 8 | Hit | −0.272 | −0.511 | −0.616 | 32.5% / 7.8% / 59.7% |
| 9 | Hit | −0.340 | −0.543 | −0.738 | 29.0% / 8.0% / 63.0% |
| 10 | Hit | −0.381 | −0.540 | −0.797 | 27.0% / 8.0% / 65.1% |
| A | Hit | −0.351 | −0.667 | −0.829 | 28.2% / 8.6% / 63.2% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
12 vs 2: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 34.8%, push 5.0% and lose 60.2% of these hands — an expected loss of 25¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 4.0¢ per $1 — about $100 over 100 hands at $25. With a 2 up, the dealer busts 35.4% of the time. Card counters stand at true count +3 or higher.
12 vs 3: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 35.9%, push 4.8% and lose 59.3% of these hands — an expected loss of 23¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 1.8¢ per $1 — about $45 over 100 hands at $25. With a 3 up, the dealer busts 37.4% of the time. Card counters stand at true count +2 or higher.
12 vs 4: Stand (borderline)
Stand. A standing 12 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 4 does 39.4% of the time — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. Hit is a near tie (−0.214): the gap is 0.30¢ per $1, so neither choice is a real mistake.
12 vs 5: Stand
Stand. A standing 12 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 5 does 41.6% of the time — an expected loss of 17¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 2.6¢ per $1 — about $65 over 100 hands at $25.
12 vs 6: Stand
Stand. A standing 12 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 6 does 42.3% of the time — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 1.7¢ per $1 — about $43 over 100 hands at $25.
12 vs 7: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 35.5%, push 7.6% and lose 56.8% of these hands — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 26¢ per $1 — about $655 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
12 vs 8: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 32.5%, push 7.8% and lose 59.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 27¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 24¢ per $1 — about $598 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
12 vs 9: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 29.0%, push 8.0% and lose 63.0% of these hands — an expected loss of 34¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 20¢ per $1 — about $508 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time.
12 vs 10: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 27.0%, push 8.0% and lose 65.1% of these hands — an expected loss of 38¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 16¢ per $1 — about $398 over 100 hands at $25. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time.
12 vs A: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 28.2%, push 8.6% and lose 63.2% of these hands — an expected loss of 35¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 32¢ per $1 — about $790 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time.
Card-counting deviations
Basic strategy assumes a neutral shoe. With a running count, these hard 12 plays change:
- 12 vs 2 — Counters stand at true count +3 or higher.
- 12 vs 3 — Counters stand at true count +2 or higher.
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