Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 14 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 14: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 14 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 14 plays this way
Fourteen busts on an 8 or higher, about 46% of single draws, and it plays exactly like 13: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–ace. Hitting 14 against a 10 feels reckless, and it does lose most of the time — but standing wins only when that dealer busts, which happens just 23% of the time.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −0.362 | −0.293 | −0.724 | 35.4% / 0.0% / 64.6% |
| 3 | Stand | −0.349 | −0.252 | −0.697 | 37.4% / 0.0% / 62.6% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.335 | −0.211 | −0.670 | 39.4% / 0.0% / 60.6% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.321 | −0.167 | −0.643 | 41.6% / 0.0% / 58.4% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.301 | −0.154 | −0.601 | 42.3% / 0.0% / 57.7% |
| 7 | Hit | −0.321 | −0.475 | −0.668 | 30.6% / 6.6% / 62.8% |
| 8 | Hit | −0.372 | −0.511 | −0.766 | 28.0% / 6.7% / 65.2% |
| 9 | Hit | −0.431 | −0.543 | −0.878 | 25.0% / 6.9% / 68.1% |
| 10 | Hit | −0.466 | −0.540 | −0.938 | 23.2% / 6.9% / 69.9% |
| A | Hit | −0.440 | −0.667 | −0.932 | 24.3% / 7.4% / 68.3% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
14 vs 2: Stand
Stand. A standing 14 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 2 does 35.4% of the time — an expected loss of 29¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 6.9¢ per $1 — about $173 over 100 hands at $25.
14 vs 3: Stand
Stand. A standing 14 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 3 does 37.4% of the time — an expected loss of 25¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 9.7¢ per $1 — about $242 over 100 hands at $25.
14 vs 4: Stand
Stand. A standing 14 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 4 does 39.4% of the time — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 12¢ per $1 — about $310 over 100 hands at $25.
14 vs 5: Stand
Stand. A standing 14 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 5 does 41.6% of the time — an expected loss of 17¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 15¢ per $1 — about $385 over 100 hands at $25.
14 vs 6: Stand
Stand. A standing 14 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 6 does 42.3% of the time — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 15¢ per $1 — about $368 over 100 hands at $25.
14 vs 7: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 30.6%, push 6.6% and lose 62.8% of these hands — an expected loss of 32¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 15¢ per $1 — about $385 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
14 vs 8: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 28.0%, push 6.7% and lose 65.2% of these hands — an expected loss of 37¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 14¢ per $1 — about $348 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
14 vs 9: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 25.0%, push 6.9% and lose 68.1% of these hands — an expected loss of 43¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 11¢ per $1 — about $280 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time.
14 vs 10: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 23.2%, push 6.9% and lose 69.9% of these hands — an expected loss of 47¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 7.4¢ per $1 — about $185 over 100 hands at $25. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time.
14 vs A: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 24.3%, push 7.4% and lose 68.3% of these hands — an expected loss of 44¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 23¢ per $1 — about $568 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time.