Updated 2026-10-06 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 13 in blackjack: the verdict vs every dealer card
Hard 13: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–A.
The row, at a glance
| You | Dealer’s upcard | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A | |
| 13 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Tap a cell to jump to that dealer card.
Why hard 13 plays this way
Thirteen busts on any 9 or ten-value card — about 38% of single draws — and that extra risk is exactly what flips the dealer-2 decision compared with 12: against a 2 you now stand. From 2 through 6 you stand and let the dealer take the risk (35–42% busts). From 7 through ace you hit, because a dealer showing a high card makes 17–21 most of the time and a standing 13 only wins when the dealer breaks.
Exact numbers for every dealer card
| Dealer | Play | Hit | Stand | Double | Win / push / lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −0.308 | −0.293 | −0.616 | 35.4% / 0.0% / 64.6% |
| 3 | Stand | −0.291 | −0.252 | −0.582 | 37.4% / 0.0% / 62.6% |
| 4 | Stand | −0.274 | −0.211 | −0.548 | 39.4% / 0.0% / 60.6% |
| 5 | Stand | −0.257 | −0.167 | −0.515 | 41.6% / 0.0% / 58.4% |
| 6 | Stand | −0.236 | −0.154 | −0.471 | 42.3% / 0.0% / 57.7% |
| 7 | Hit | −0.269 | −0.475 | −0.587 | 33.0% / 7.1% / 59.9% |
| 8 | Hit | −0.324 | −0.511 | −0.691 | 30.2% / 7.3% / 62.6% |
| 9 | Hit | −0.387 | −0.543 | −0.808 | 26.9% / 7.4% / 65.7% |
| 10 | Hit | −0.425 | −0.540 | −0.868 | 25.0% / 7.4% / 67.6% |
| A | Hit | −0.397 | −0.667 | −0.881 | 26.1% / 8.0% / 65.8% |
EV per $1 bet for each action; the best play is in bold. Rules: 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, peek, double after split.
Dealer card by dealer card
13 vs 2: Stand
Stand. A standing 13 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 2 does 35.4% of the time — an expected loss of 29¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 1.5¢ per $1 — about $38 over 100 hands at $25. Card counters keep standing down to true count −1, hitting only below it.
13 vs 3: Stand
Stand. A standing 13 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 3 does 37.4% of the time — an expected loss of 25¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 3.9¢ per $1 — about $97 over 100 hands at $25.
13 vs 4: Stand
Stand. A standing 13 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 4 does 39.4% of the time — an expected loss of 21¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 6.3¢ per $1 — about $158 over 100 hands at $25.
13 vs 5: Stand
Stand. A standing 13 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 5 does 41.6% of the time — an expected loss of 17¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 9.0¢ per $1 — about $225 over 100 hands at $25.
13 vs 6: Stand
Stand. A standing 13 wins only when the dealer busts, which a 6 does 42.3% of the time — an expected loss of 15¢ per $1. The next-best play, hit, gives up 8.2¢ per $1 — about $205 over 100 hands at $25.
13 vs 7: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 33.0%, push 7.1% and lose 59.9% of these hands — an expected loss of 27¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 21¢ per $1 — about $515 over 100 hands at $25. With a 7 up, the dealer busts 26.2% of the time.
13 vs 8: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 30.2%, push 7.3% and lose 62.6% of these hands — an expected loss of 32¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 19¢ per $1 — about $468 over 100 hands at $25. With an 8 up, the dealer busts 24.5% of the time.
13 vs 9: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 26.9%, push 7.4% and lose 65.7% of these hands — an expected loss of 39¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 16¢ per $1 — about $390 over 100 hands at $25. With a 9 up, the dealer busts 22.8% of the time.
13 vs 10: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 25.0%, push 7.4% and lose 67.6% of these hands — an expected loss of 42¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 12¢ per $1 — about $288 over 100 hands at $25. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 23.0% of the time.
13 vs A: Hit
Hit. Played this way you win 26.1%, push 8.0% and lose 65.8% of these hands — an expected loss of 40¢ per $1. The next-best play, stand, gives up 27¢ per $1 — about $675 over 100 hands at $25. With an ace up, the dealer busts 16.7% of the time.
Card-counting deviations
Basic strategy assumes a neutral shoe. With a running count, these hard 13 plays change:
- 13 vs 2 — Counters keep standing down to true count −1, hitting only below it.
New to the true count? See how counting works.
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