Dealer bust odds with an ace showing
Dealer shows an ace: they bust 16.65% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules (20.07% if the table hits soft 17). Exact figures, computed by full recursion — here is everything that upcard can become.
| Final hand | Probability (S17) | Probability (H17) |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 18.89% | 8.30% |
| 18 | 18.89% | 20.69% |
| 19 | 18.89% | 20.69% |
| 20 | 18.89% | 20.69% |
| 21 | 7.78% | 9.57% |
| Bust | 16.65% | 20.07% |
What it means for your hand
The ace is the dealer’s best card: just 16.65% bust odds under S17 (20.07% under H17, where the extra draw helps you slightly). Insurance will be offered here — decline it; it is a −7.7% side bet no matter what you hold. US peek rules assumed: a dealer blackjack ends the round before decisions, so naturals are excluded from the table. See the full upcard comparison or the strategy chart this number feeds into.
Hands this upcard decides
16 vs aceFull verdict with odds and EV11 vs aceFull verdict with odds and EVsoft 18 vs aceFull verdict with odds and EV
Frequently asked
How often does the dealer bust with an ace?
16.65% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules, 20.07% if the dealer hits soft 17 — exact recursion values, conditioned on no dealer blackjack.
What is the dealer's most likely final hand with an ace?
A finished 17 — 18.89% of rounds.