Dealer bust odds with a 10 showing
Dealer shows a 10: they bust 22.98% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules (22.98% if the table hits soft 17). Exact figures, computed by full recursion — here is everything that upcard can become.
| Final hand | Probability (S17) | Probability (H17) |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 12.07% | 12.07% |
| 18 | 12.07% | 12.07% |
| 19 | 12.07% | 12.07% |
| 20 | 37.07% | 37.07% |
| 21 | 3.74% | 3.74% |
| Bust | 22.98% | 22.98% |
What it means for your hand
Only 22.98% bust odds and the strongest average finishing hand in the game: this upcard decides the most famous close calls in blackjack, from hitting 16 to surrendering 15 where allowed. Doubles shrink to 10-vs-nothing and 11 only. US peek rules assumed: a dealer blackjack ends the round before decisions, so naturals are excluded from the table. See the full upcard comparison or the strategy chart this number feeds into.
Hands this upcard decides
16 vs 10Full verdict with odds and EV15 vs 10Full verdict with odds and EV8 8 vs 10Full verdict with odds and EV
Frequently asked
How often does the dealer bust with a 10?
22.98% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules, 22.98% if the dealer hits soft 17 — exact recursion values, conditioned on no dealer blackjack.
What is the dealer's most likely final hand with a 10?
A finished 20 — 37.07% of rounds.