Dealer bust odds with a 4 showing
Dealer shows a 4: they bust 39.45% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules (39.71% if the table hits soft 17). Exact figures, computed by full recursion — here is everything that upcard can become.
| Final hand | Probability (S17) | Probability (H17) |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 13.05% | 12.24% |
| 18 | 12.59% | 12.73% |
| 19 | 12.14% | 12.28% |
| 20 | 11.65% | 11.79% |
| 21 | 11.12% | 11.26% |
| Bust | 39.45% | 39.71% |
What it means for your hand
This is a premium bust card. With 39.45% bust odds you stand on every stiff 12–16, you double aggressively on 9–11 and soft totals, and you split pairs you would otherwise fold — the dealer does the losing for you often enough to pay for all of it. US peek rules assumed: a dealer blackjack ends the round before decisions, so naturals are excluded from the table. See the full upcard comparison or the strategy chart this number feeds into.
Hands this upcard decides
12 vs 4Full verdict with odds and EVsoft 15 vs 4Full verdict with odds and EV10 vs 4Full verdict with odds and EV
Frequently asked
How often does the dealer bust with a 4?
39.45% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules, 39.71% if the dealer hits soft 17 — exact recursion values, conditioned on no dealer blackjack.
What is the dealer's most likely final hand with a 4?
A bust — 39.45% of rounds.