Dealer bust odds with a 7 showing
Dealer shows a 7: they bust 26.23% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules (26.23% if the table hits soft 17). Exact figures, computed by full recursion — here is everything that upcard can become.
| Final hand | Probability (S17) | Probability (H17) |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 36.86% | 36.86% |
| 18 | 13.78% | 13.78% |
| 19 | 7.86% | 7.86% |
| 20 | 7.86% | 7.86% |
| 21 | 7.41% | 7.41% |
| Bust | 26.23% | 26.23% |
What it means for your hand
The dealer completes a pat 17–21 about 73.77% of the time here, so standing on a stiff total surrenders the hand to the odds. Basic strategy keeps hitting 12–16 against a 7 — busting occasionally is cheaper than standing into a made hand. US peek rules assumed: a dealer blackjack ends the round before decisions, so naturals are excluded from the table. See the full upcard comparison or the strategy chart this number feeds into.
Hands this upcard decides
16 vs 7Full verdict with odds and EVsoft 17 vs 7Full verdict with odds and EV9 vs 7Full verdict with odds and EV
Frequently asked
How often does the dealer bust with a 7?
26.23% of the time under stand-on-soft-17 rules, 26.23% if the dealer hits soft 17 — exact recursion values, conditioned on no dealer blackjack.
What is the dealer's most likely final hand with a 7?
A finished 17 — 36.86% of rounds.