Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 18 (A,7) vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 18 (a,7).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 38.5% | 13.6% | 47.8% | −0.093 |
| Stand | 35.5% | 18.9% | 45.6% | −0.100 |
| Double | 35.5% | 10.8% | 53.7% | −0.363 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 38.5% wins versus 35.5% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $18 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.007 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.270 per dollar, or roughly $675 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 18 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: