Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 11 vs dealer 9: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 11 against a dealer 9?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.0% (push 7.3%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

The verdict is double. Against a dealer 9, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	52.0%	7.3%	40.6%	+0.228
Hit	52.9%	10.0%	37.1%	+0.158
Stand	22.8%	0.0%	77.2%	−0.543

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (52.0% vs 52.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 9 (bust chance 22.8%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.228 doubled beats +0.158 hit.

For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $174 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.070 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.771 per dollar, or roughly $1927 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

11 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 9:

16 vs 9 12 vs 9 15 vs 9 soft 18 vs 9 8,8 vs 9

Frequently asked

Do you double on 11 against a dealer 9?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Hard 11 vs 9 (EV +0.228 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.158.

What are the odds of winning with 11 vs 9?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 52.0% of hands, push 7.3% and lose 40.6%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on hard 11 against a dealer 9?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.0% (push 7.3%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.