Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 11 vs dealer 9: the verdict
The verdict is double. Against a dealer 9, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 52.0% | 7.3% | 40.6% | +0.228 |
| Hit | 52.9% | 10.0% | 37.1% | +0.158 |
| Stand | 22.8% | 0.0% | 77.2% | −0.543 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (52.0% vs 52.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 9 (bust chance 22.8%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.228 doubled beats +0.158 hit.
For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $174 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.070 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.771 per dollar, or roughly $1927 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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11 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 9: