Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 11 vs dealer 3: the verdict
The verdict is double. Against a dealer 3, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 59.2% | 7.5% | 33.3% | +0.518 |
| Hit | 59.1% | 7.8% | 33.1% | +0.260 |
| Stand | 37.4% | 0.0% | 62.6% | −0.252 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (59.2% vs 59.1%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 3 (bust chance 37.4%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.518 doubled beats +0.260 hit.
For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $644 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.257 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.770 per dollar, or roughly $1925 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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11 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 3: