Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 11 vs dealer 5: the verdict
The math is in: double. Against a dealer 5, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 61.9% | 7.0% | 31.1% | +0.615 |
| Hit | 61.9% | 7.0% | 31.1% | +0.307 |
| Stand | 41.6% | 0.0% | 58.4% | −0.167 |
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Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (61.9% vs 61.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 5 (bust chance 41.6%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.615 doubled beats +0.307 hit.
For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $768 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.307 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.782 per dollar, or roughly $1955 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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11 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 5: