Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 11 vs dealer 2: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 11 against a dealer 2?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 57.9% (push 7.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

The math is in: double. Against a dealer 2, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	57.9%	7.7%	34.4%	+0.471
Hit	57.9%	8.1%	34.0%	+0.238
Stand	35.4%	0.0%	64.6%	−0.293

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (57.9% vs 57.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 2 (bust chance 35.4%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.471 doubled beats +0.238 hit.

For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $581 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.232 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.763 per dollar, or roughly $1909 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

11 against other dealer cards:

vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 2:

16 vs 2 12 vs 2 15 vs 2 soft 18 vs 2 8,8 vs 2

Frequently asked

Do you double on 11 against a dealer 2?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Hard 11 vs 2 (EV +0.471 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.238.

What are the odds of winning with 11 vs 2?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 57.9% of hands, push 7.7% and lose 34.4%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on hard 11 against a dealer 2?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 57.9% (push 7.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.