Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Soft 16 (A,5) vs dealer 6: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 6?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.3% (push 4.4%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

The math is in: double. Against a dealer 6, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	52.3%	4.4%	43.3%	+0.180
Hit	53.0%	3.8%	43.2%	+0.099
Stand	42.3%	0.0%	57.7%	−0.154

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (52.3% vs 53.0%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 6 (bust chance 42.3%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.180 doubled beats +0.099 hit.

For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $202 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.081 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.333 per dollar, or roughly $834 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

soft 16 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 6:

16 vs 6 12 vs 6 15 vs 6 soft 18 vs 6 8,8 vs 6

Frequently asked

Do you double on soft 16 against a dealer 6?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Soft 16 (A,5) vs 6 (EV +0.180 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.099.

What are the odds of winning with soft 16 vs 6?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 52.3% of hands, push 4.4% and lose 43.3%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 6?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.3% (push 4.4%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.