Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Soft 16 (A,5) vs dealer 3: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 3?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 48.1% (push 4.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

The math is in: hit. Against a dealer 3, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 16 (a,5).

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	48.1%	4.8%	47.2%	+0.009
Double	47.4%	4.8%	47.8%	−0.007
Stand	37.4%	0.0%	62.6%	−0.252

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 3 busts just 37.4% of the time — the other 62.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 48.1% wins versus 37.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing double instead of hit costs about $41 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.016 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.261 per dollar, or roughly $653 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

soft 16 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 3:

16 vs 3 12 vs 3 15 vs 3 soft 18 vs 3 8,8 vs 3

Frequently asked

Do you hit on soft 16 against a dealer 3?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Soft 16 (A,5) vs 3 (EV +0.009 per $1). Double is the second-best option at −0.007.

What are the odds of winning with soft 16 vs 3?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 48.1% of hands, push 4.8% and lose 47.2%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.

Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 3?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 48.1% (push 4.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.