Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Soft 16 (A,5) vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 49.1% (push 4.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

The verdict is double. Against a dealer 4, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	49.1%	4.7%	46.2%	+0.058
Hit	49.9%	4.2%	45.9%	+0.040
Stand	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.211

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (49.1% vs 49.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 4 (bust chance 39.4%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.058 doubled beats +0.040 hit.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $46 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.018 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.269 per dollar, or roughly $674 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

soft 16 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you double on soft 16 against a dealer 4?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Soft 16 (A,5) vs 4 (EV +0.058 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.040.

What are the odds of winning with soft 16 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 49.1% of hands, push 4.7% and lose 46.2%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on soft 16 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 49.1% (push 4.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.