Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on a pair of 4s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 48.5% (push 6.9%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

The math is in: hit. Against a dealer 4, drawing another card carries the best expectation for 4,4 (pair of 4s).

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	48.5%	6.9%	44.6%	+0.039
Split*	45.8%	3.2%	51.0%	−0.012
Double	45.4%	5.8%	48.8%	−0.066
Stand	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.211

* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 4 busts just 39.4% of the time — the other 60.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 48.5% wins versus 39.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing split instead of hit costs about $126 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.050 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.250 per dollar, or roughly $625 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

4,4 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you hit on 4,4 against a dealer 4?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for 4,4 (pair of 4s) vs 4 (EV +0.039 per $1). Split is the second-best option at −0.012.

What are the odds of winning with 4,4 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 48.5% of hands, push 6.9% and lose 44.6%.

Should you always hit 4,4?

Not against every upcard — the verdict for 4,4 changes with the dealer’s card. Use the links below to see the full row, or the chart for the complete picture.

Hit or stand on a pair of 4s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 48.5% (push 6.9%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.