Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer 2: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 2, drawing another card carries the best expectation for 4,4 (pair of 4s).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 45.0% | 7.9% | 47.2% | −0.022 |
| Split* | 42.2% | 4.1% | 53.7% | −0.167 |
| Double | 41.8% | 6.2% | 52.0% | −0.204 |
| Stand | 35.4% | 0.0% | 64.6% | −0.293 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 2 busts just 35.4% of the time — the other 64.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 45.0% wins versus 35.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of hit costs about $363 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.145 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.271 per dollar, or roughly $677 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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4,4 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 2: