Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer 3: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 3, drawing another card carries the best expectation for 4,4 (pair of 4s).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 46.6% | 7.6% | 45.8% | +0.008 |
| Split* | 43.8% | 3.9% | 52.4% | −0.091 |
| Double | 43.6% | 6.0% | 50.4% | −0.136 |
| Stand | 37.4% | 0.0% | 62.6% | −0.252 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 3 busts just 37.4% of the time — the other 62.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 46.6% wins versus 37.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of hit costs about $248 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.099 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.260 per dollar, or roughly $651 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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4,4 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 3: