Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

2,2 (pair of 2s) vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on a pair of 2s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Split. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 46.9% (push 3.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

SPLIT

The math is in: split. Two hands of 2 beat one 4 against a dealer 4 — split them.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Split*	46.9%	3.8%	49.4%	+0.043
Hit	45.9%	3.3%	50.8%	−0.049
Stand	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.211
Double	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.422

* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.

Why split is correct

Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 4. Split, each new hand starting from 2 wins 46.9% — enough that two of them (EV +0.043 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.049.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of split costs about $231 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.092 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.465 per dollar, or roughly $1163 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

2,2 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you split on 2,2 against a dealer 4?

Yes — split is the basic-strategy play for 2,2 (pair of 2s) vs 4 (EV +0.043 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at −0.049.

What are the odds of winning with 2,2 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (split), you win 46.9% of hands, push 3.8% and lose 49.4% per split hand.

Should you always split 2,2?

Not against every upcard — the verdict for 2,2 changes with the dealer’s card. Use the links below to see the full row, or the chart for the complete picture.

Hit or stand on a pair of 2s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Split. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 46.9% (push 3.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.