Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
2,2 (pair of 2s) vs dealer 3: the verdict
Basic strategy says split. Two hands of 2 beat one 4 against a dealer 3 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 44.5% | 5.6% | 49.8% | −0.026 |
| Hit | 43.9% | 4.0% | 52.1% | −0.083 |
| Stand | 37.4% | 0.0% | 62.6% | −0.252 |
| Double | 37.4% | 0.0% | 62.6% | −0.505 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 3. Split, each new hand starting from 2 wins 44.5% — enough that two of them (EV −0.026 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.083.
For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $142 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.057 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.479 per dollar, or roughly $1197 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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2,2 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 3: