Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
2,2 (pair of 2s) vs dealer 2: the verdict
The verdict is split. Two hands of 2 beat one 4 against a dealer 2 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 43.2% | 5.9% | 50.9% | −0.089 |
| Hit | 42.2% | 4.1% | 53.7% | −0.115 |
| Stand | 35.4% | 0.0% | 64.6% | −0.293 |
| Double | 35.4% | 0.0% | 64.6% | −0.586 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 2. Split, each new hand starting from 2 wins 43.2% — enough that two of them (EV −0.089 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.115.
For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $65 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.026 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.497 per dollar, or roughly $1242 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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2,2 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 2: