Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 10 vs dealer 5: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 10 against a dealer 5?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 59.3% (push 7.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

Basic strategy says double. Against a dealer 5, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	59.3%	7.1%	33.6%	+0.513
Hit	59.3%	7.1%	33.6%	+0.256
Stand	41.6%	0.0%	58.4%	−0.167

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (59.3% vs 59.3%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 5 (bust chance 41.6%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.513 doubled beats +0.256 hit.

For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $641 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.256 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.680 per dollar, or roughly $1699 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

10 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 5:

16 vs 5 12 vs 5 15 vs 5 soft 18 vs 5 8,8 vs 5

Frequently asked

Do you double on 10 against a dealer 5?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Hard 10 vs 5 (EV +0.513 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.256.

What are the odds of winning with 10 vs 5?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 59.3% of hands, push 7.1% and lose 33.6%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on hard 10 against a dealer 5?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 59.3% (push 7.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.