Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Soft 14 (A,3) vs dealer 9: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on soft 14 against a dealer 9?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 40.9% (push 10.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 9, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 14 (a,3).

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	40.9%	10.7%	48.4%	−0.075
Double	35.6%	5.9%	58.4%	−0.456
Stand	22.8%	0.0%	77.2%	−0.543

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 9 busts just 22.8% of the time — the other 77.2% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 40.9% wins versus 22.8% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing double instead of hit costs about $953 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.381 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.468 per dollar, or roughly $1170 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

soft 14 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 9:

16 vs 9 12 vs 9 15 vs 9 soft 18 vs 9 8,8 vs 9

Frequently asked

Do you hit on soft 14 against a dealer 9?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Soft 14 (A,3) vs 9 (EV −0.075 per $1). Double is the second-best option at −0.456.

What are the odds of winning with soft 14 vs 9?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 40.9% of hands, push 10.7% and lose 48.4%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.

Hit or stand on soft 14 against a dealer 9?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 40.9% (push 10.7%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.