Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Soft 14 (A,3) vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on soft 14 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 51.5% (push 4.9%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 4, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 14 (a,3).

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	51.5%	4.9%	43.5%	+0.080
Double	49.1%	4.7%	46.2%	+0.058
Stand	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.211

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 4 busts just 39.4% of the time — the other 60.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 51.5% wins versus 39.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing double instead of hit costs about $54 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.022 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.291 per dollar, or roughly $728 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

soft 14 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you hit on soft 14 against a dealer 4?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Soft 14 (A,3) vs 4 (EV +0.080 per $1). Double is the second-best option at +0.058.

What are the odds of winning with soft 14 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 51.5% of hands, push 4.9% and lose 43.5%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.

Hit or stand on soft 14 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 51.5% (push 4.9%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.