Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 14 (A,3) vs dealer 4: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 4, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 14 (a,3).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 51.5% | 4.9% | 43.5% | +0.080 |
| Double | 49.1% | 4.7% | 46.2% | +0.058 |
| Stand | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.211 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 4 busts just 39.4% of the time — the other 60.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 51.5% wins versus 39.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $54 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.022 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.291 per dollar, or roughly $728 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
🎁 Blackjack Welcome Bonus — 500% + 70 FS18+ · New players · First deposit · T&C apply · Play responsibly Get this verdict at the table in one tap.Free Telegram mini-app: instant verdicts, drill trainer and rule-aware charts — no install, opens right in chat.Related spots
soft 14 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: