Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
A,A (pair of aces) vs dealer 8: the verdict
The math is in: split. Two hands of A beat one 12 against a dealer 8 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 55.1% | 7.4% | 37.5% | +0.351 |
| Hit | 49.1% | 11.3% | 39.6% | +0.095 |
| Double | 39.2% | 5.8% | 55.0% | −0.314 |
| Stand | 24.5% | 0.0% | 75.5% | −0.511 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 8. Split, each new hand starting from A wins 55.1% — enough that two of them (EV +0.351 across both) beat the best single-hand line at +0.095.
For context, a dealer 8 finishes on 17–20 about 68.6% of the time, on 21 6.9%, and busts 24.5%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $639 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.256 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.861 per dollar, or roughly $2153 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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A,A against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 8: