Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
A,A (pair of aces) vs dealer 10: the verdict
Basic strategy says split. Two hands of A beat one 12 against a dealer 10 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 51.1% | 6.8% | 42.1% | +0.180 |
| Hit | 40.8% | 11.5% | 47.8% | −0.070 |
| Double | 34.2% | 5.9% | 59.9% | −0.514 |
| Stand | 23.0% | 0.0% | 77.0% | −0.540 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 10. Split, each new hand starting from A wins 51.1% — enough that two of them (EV +0.180 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.070.
For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $624 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.250 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.720 per dollar, or roughly $1800 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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A,A against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 10: