Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 9 vs dealer 6: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 9 against a dealer 6?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 54.9% (push 6.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

DOUBLE

The math is in: double. Against a dealer 6, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Double	54.9%	6.1%	39.0%	+0.317
Hit	56.5%	6.7%	36.9%	+0.196
Stand	42.3%	0.0%	57.7%	−0.154

Why double is correct

Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (54.9% vs 56.5%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 6 (bust chance 42.3%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.317 doubled beats +0.196 hit.

For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of double costs about $303 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.121 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.471 per dollar, or roughly $1177 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

9 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 6:

16 vs 6 12 vs 6 15 vs 6 soft 18 vs 6 8,8 vs 6

Frequently asked

Do you double on 9 against a dealer 6?

Yes — double is the basic-strategy play for Hard 9 vs 6 (EV +0.317 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at +0.196.

What are the odds of winning with 9 vs 6?

Playing it correctly (double), you win 54.9% of hands, push 6.1% and lose 39.0%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still double.

Hit or stand on hard 9 against a dealer 6?

Basic strategy says Double. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 54.9% (push 6.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.