Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 9 vs dealer 2: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 9 against a dealer 2?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 49.7% (push 8.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 2, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 9.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	49.7%	8.1%	42.2%	+0.074
Double	48.0%	7.1%	44.9%	+0.061
Stand	35.4%	0.0%	64.6%	−0.293

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 2 busts just 35.4% of the time — the other 64.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 49.7% wins versus 35.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing double instead of hit costs about $33 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.013 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.367 per dollar, or roughly $918 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

Card counter’s note. Counters double at true count +1 or higher. See how counting and true counts work.

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Related spots

9 against other dealer cards:

vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 2:

16 vs 2 12 vs 2 15 vs 2 soft 18 vs 2 8,8 vs 2

Frequently asked

Do you hit on 9 against a dealer 2?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Hard 9 vs 2 (EV +0.074 per $1). Double is the second-best option at +0.061.

What are the odds of winning with 9 vs 2?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 49.7% of hands, push 8.1% and lose 42.2%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.

Hit or stand on hard 9 against a dealer 2?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 49.7% (push 8.1%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.