Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 5 vs dealer 6: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 6, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 5.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 48.5% | 2.9% | 48.6% | −0.001 |
| Stand | 42.3% | 0.0% | 57.7% | −0.154 |
| Double | 42.3% | 0.0% | 57.7% | −0.307 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 6 busts just 42.3% of the time — the other 57.7% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 48.5% wins versus 42.3% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $381 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.153 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.306 per dollar, or roughly $766 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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5 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 6: