Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 5 vs dealer 10: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 5 against a dealer 10?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 29.9% (push 9.0%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

HIT

The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 10, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 5.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	29.9%	9.0%	61.2%	−0.313
Stand	23.0%	0.0%	77.0%	−0.540
Double	23.0%	0.0%	77.0%	−1.081

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 10 busts just 23.0% of the time — the other 77.0% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 29.9% wins versus 23.0% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $568 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.227 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.767 per dollar, or roughly $1919 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

5 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 10:

16 vs 10 12 vs 10 15 vs 10 soft 18 vs 10 8,8 vs 10

Frequently asked

Do you hit on 5 against a dealer 10?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Hard 5 vs 10 (EV −0.313 per $1). Stand is the second-best option at −0.540.

What are the odds of winning with 5 vs 10?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 29.9% of hands, push 9.0% and lose 61.2%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.

Hit or stand on hard 5 against a dealer 10?

Basic strategy says Hit. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 29.9% (push 9.0%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.