Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
3,3 (pair of 3s) vs dealer 7: the verdict
The verdict is split. Two hands of 3 beat one 6 against a dealer 7 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 42.2% | 8.9% | 48.9% | −0.068 |
| Hit | 38.2% | 8.4% | 53.4% | −0.152 |
| Stand | 26.2% | 0.0% | 73.8% | −0.475 |
| Double | 26.2% | 2.8% | 70.9% | −0.894 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 7. Split, each new hand starting from 3 wins 42.2% — enough that two of them (EV −0.068 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.152.
For context, a dealer 7 finishes on 17–20 about 66.4% of the time, on 21 7.4%, and busts 26.2%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $210 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.084 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.826 per dollar, or roughly $2066 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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3,3 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 7: