Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

3,3 (pair of 3s) vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on a pair of 3s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Split. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 46.3% (push 3.5%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

SPLIT

The verdict is split. Two hands of 3 beat one 6 against a dealer 4 — split them.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Split*	46.3%	3.5%	50.2%	+0.015
Hit	45.0%	2.8%	52.2%	−0.073
Stand	39.4%	0.0%	60.6%	−0.211
Double	39.4%	1.0%	59.5%	−0.402

* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.

Why split is correct

Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 4. Split, each new hand starting from 3 wins 46.3% — enough that two of them (EV +0.015 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.073.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of split costs about $219 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.088 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.417 per dollar, or roughly $1042 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

Get this verdict at the table in one tap.Free Telegram mini-app: instant verdicts, drill trainer and rule-aware charts — no install, opens right in chat.

Related spots

3,3 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you split on 3,3 against a dealer 4?

Yes — split is the basic-strategy play for 3,3 (pair of 3s) vs 4 (EV +0.015 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at −0.073.

What are the odds of winning with 3,3 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (split), you win 46.3% of hands, push 3.5% and lose 50.2% per split hand.

Should you always split 3,3?

Not against every upcard — the verdict for 3,3 changes with the dealer’s card. Use the links below to see the full row, or the chart for the complete picture.

Hit or stand on a pair of 3s against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Split. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 46.3% (push 3.5%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.