Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 19 vs dealer 9: the verdict
The math is in: stand. Against a dealer 9, hard 19 does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 46.8% | 35.1% | 18.1% | +0.288 |
| Hit | 13.5% | 1.4% | 85.1% | −0.716 |
| Double | 13.5% | 1.4% | 85.1% | −1.431 |
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Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 9 busts 22.8% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 46.8% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of stand costs about $2508 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−1.003 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −1.719 per dollar, or roughly $4297 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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19 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 9: