Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 19 vs dealer 5: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 19 against a dealer 5?

Basic strategy says Stand. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 66.1% (push 11.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

STAND

Basic strategy says stand. Against a dealer 5, hard 19 does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Stand	66.1%	11.8%	22.1%	+0.440
Hit	12.8%	1.7%	85.4%	−0.726
Double	12.8%	1.7%	85.4%	−1.452

Why stand is correct

A dealer showing 5 busts 41.6% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 66.1% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.

For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of stand costs about $2914 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−1.166 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −1.891 per dollar, or roughly $4729 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

19 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 5:

16 vs 5 12 vs 5 15 vs 5 soft 18 vs 5 8,8 vs 5

Frequently asked

Do you stand on 19 against a dealer 5?

Yes — stand is the basic-strategy play for Hard 19 vs 5 (EV +0.440 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at −0.726.

What are the odds of winning with 19 vs 5?

Playing it correctly (stand), you win 66.1% of hands, push 11.8% and lose 22.1%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still stand.

Hit or stand on hard 19 against a dealer 5?

Basic strategy says Stand. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 66.1% (push 11.8%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.