Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 17 (A,6) vs dealer 3: the verdict
The verdict is double. Against a dealer 3, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 47.4% | 7.9% | 44.7% | +0.055 |
| Hit | 47.3% | 8.3% | 44.4% | +0.029 |
| Stand | 37.4% | 13.5% | 49.1% | −0.117 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (47.4% vs 47.3%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 3 (bust chance 37.4%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.055 doubled beats +0.029 hit.
For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $65 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.026 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.172 per dollar, or roughly $431 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 17 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 3: