Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 15 (A,4) vs dealer 7: the verdict
The math is in: hit. Against a dealer 7, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 15 (a,4).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 47.7% | 8.3% | 44.0% | +0.037 |
| Double | 42.6% | 5.7% | 51.8% | −0.184 |
| Stand | 26.2% | 0.0% | 73.8% | −0.475 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 7 busts just 26.2% of the time — the other 73.8% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 47.7% wins versus 26.2% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 7 finishes on 17–20 about 66.4% of the time, on 21 7.4%, and busts 26.2%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $552 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.221 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.512 per dollar, or roughly $1281 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 7: