Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 8 vs dealer 5: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 5, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 8.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 50.2% | 6.7% | 43.1% | +0.071 |
| Double | 47.3% | 5.6% | 47.1% | +0.003 |
| Stand | 41.6% | 0.0% | 58.4% | −0.167 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 5 busts just 41.6% of the time — the other 58.4% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 50.2% wins versus 41.6% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $168 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.067 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.238 per dollar, or roughly $595 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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8 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 5: