Updated 2026-07-30 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 18 vs dealer 4: the verdict

Q: Hit or stand on hard 18 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Stand. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.5% (push 12.6%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.

STAND

The math is in: stand. Against a dealer 4, hard 18 does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Stand	52.5%	12.6%	34.9%	+0.176
Hit	17.8%	2.7%	79.5%	−0.617
Double	17.8%	2.7%	79.5%	−1.235

Why stand is correct

A dealer showing 4 busts 39.4% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 52.5% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.

For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing hit instead of stand costs about $1983 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.793 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −1.411 per dollar, or roughly $3527 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.

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Related spots

18 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10 vs Ace

Other key hands vs a dealer 4:

16 vs 4 12 vs 4 15 vs 4 soft 18 vs 4 8,8 vs 4

Frequently asked

Do you stand on 18 against a dealer 4?

Yes — stand is the basic-strategy play for Hard 18 vs 4 (EV +0.176 per $1). Hit is the second-best option at −0.617.

What are the odds of winning with 18 vs 4?

Playing it correctly (stand), you win 52.5% of hands, push 12.6% and lose 34.9%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still stand.

Hit or stand on hard 18 against a dealer 4?

Basic strategy says Stand. A genuine coin-flip — the gap is under half a cent per $1. Your chance of winning with the best play is about 52.5% (push 12.6%). Full EV math for every action is in the table above.