Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 16 vs dealer Ace: the verdict

HIT

The verdict is hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 16.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	20.9%	6.4%	72.7%	−0.517
Stand	16.7%	0.0%	83.3%	−0.667
Double	20.9%	6.4%	72.7%	−1.034

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 20.9% wins versus 16.7% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $375 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.150 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.517 per dollar, or roughly $1293 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

Yes — this is one of the cells where table rules genuinely matter:

Rules	Verdict
Evolution Live — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Hit
Vegas Strip — 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Hit
Atlantic City — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender	Surrender
Vegas H17 — 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Hit
European (ENHC) — 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split	Hit

Check the chart for your exact rules before trusting any single-table answer.

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Related spots

16 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10

Other key hands vs a dealer Ace:

12 vs Ace 15 vs Ace soft 18 vs Ace 8,8 vs Ace A,A vs Ace

Frequently asked

Do you hit on 16 against a dealer Ace?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Hard 16 vs Ace (EV −0.517 per $1). Stand is the second-best option at −0.667.

What are the odds of winning with 16 vs Ace?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 20.9% of hands, push 6.4% and lose 72.7%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

Yes — under H17 rules the verdict is still hit.