Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 12 vs dealer 4: the verdict
The math is in: stand. Against a dealer 4, hard 12 does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting. It is a genuine coin-flip, though — the top two plays are separated by .0025 per dollar, so treat the "wrong" choice as costing you almost nothing.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand ≈ | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.211 |
| Hit | 37.0% | 4.7% | 58.3% | −0.214 |
| Double | 37.0% | 4.7% | 58.3% | −0.427 |
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 4 busts 39.4% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 39.4% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of stand costs about $6 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.002 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.216 per dollar, or roughly $540 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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12 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: